How Eyehood works

• Every market asks one question: will a coin's market cap be above, or below, a price at a date.
• You put SOL on yes or no. It goes to the Eyehood vault, a wallet run by our keeper.
• At the date the keeper takes the median of the coin's pool price over a window and sends the winning side its SOL.
• Nobody picks the answer, and every reading, stake and payout is published so you can check it.

Coins that graduated on pump.fun and trade against SOL in their PumpSwap pool, with a pool deep enough to trust. Every one is listed on Markets.

Coins that moved to other exchanges, or trade against anything but SOL, are not supported.

When a market opens, the keeper takes the coin's median market cap over the hour before and writes six targets from it: 10×, 4×, 2× and 1.25× above, 0.7× and 0.4× below, each for 24 hours, 3 days, 7 days and 30 days. Every deadline lands at 20:00 UTC.

New markets open at 19:00 UTC: 24-hour markets every day, 3-day on Mondays and Thursdays, 7-day and 30-day on Fridays. A coin's first markets open as soon as it has an hour of readings. A target can be passed after a big move; the site marks it as already above or below. Dollar targets use today's SOL price, but the answer compares prices in the pool's own terms.

The keeper reads every coin's PumpSwap pool at a random moment every 8 to 30 seconds. The price is the SOL in the pool (plus the pool's virtual SOL reserve) divided by the tokens in it. Each 5-minute slot's reading is the median of the reads inside it, and at the deadline the answer is the median of the slot readings in the window.

• An above question is yes when the median market cap is at or above the target.
• A below question is yes when the median market cap is at or below the target.

A median ignores a short spike: to move it, a price has to be held for more than half of the window. Because the reads come at random moments, a buy and a sell inside one Solana block, a sandwich or a bundle, is never seen at all. Readings are kept for good, so a market settled late gets the same answer as one settled on time.

A market settles as void, and every stake goes back in full with no fee, when either is true:

• fewer than 60% of the 5-minute slots in its window hold a reading;
• one side has no money.

Refunds are sent automatically to the wallet that bet.

Money on yes and money on no form one pot. When the market settles, 1% of the pot is the fee and the side that was right shares the rest in proportion to what each wallet put in.

your payout = your stake ÷ money on your side × pot × 0.99

Example: 3 SOL on yes, 7 SOL on no, yes is right. A wallet that put 1 SOL on yes gets 1 ÷ 3 × 10 × 0.99 = 3.3 SOL.

• The chance on the site is the share of the money on yes. It moves until betting closes, and so does the payout.
• The smallest bet is 0.01 SOL. There is no early exit.
• Payouts are sent to your wallet automatically, usually within a minute of the answer. There is nothing to claim; Positions shows each one with its transaction.

Before a market opens, the keeper prices an attack on it: the SOL needed to push the pool to the target and keep it there for half the window, while traders sell into the pushed price and the pool charges its fee both ways. A market may hold at most that cost divided by 1.25. Markets whose limit would be under 1 SOL never open.

The limit is set at opening and can only go down: if a pool thins afterwards, the market takes less new money. The Proof page measures every market against today's pool.

The keeper's share pays the Solana network fee of every payout and refund. A refunded market pays no fee at all.

A bet is one plain SOL transfer to the vault with a memo that names the market and the side: eyehood:<market>:Y or :N. The site asks the keeper to prepare it, your wallet shows it and you sign. You could also send it by hand.

Whatever the keeper cannot take goes back to the wallet that sent it, automatically: a missing or wrong memo, a closed market, a bet under the minimum, a full market or the launch limit. If only part of a bet fits, the rest comes back. Amounts under 0.001 SOL are not sent back; the refund would cost more than it returns.

The vault is a wallet controlled by the Eyehood keeper, a server we run. There is no smart contract, no timelock and no multisig: you rely on the keeper to pay. What keeps that honest is that everything is public. Every bet, payout and refund is a transfer you can follow on Solscan, and for every market the keeper publishes every reading, every stake and every payout, so anyone can recompute the answer and what each wallet was owed.

Total money in open markets is capped at 25 SOL for launch. If the keeper goes down, nothing is lost, but payouts wait until it is back.

All money moves through these wallets, in public.

The site reads the keeper's API: /state, /wallet/<address>, /book/<id> for every reading and payout behind one market, and /health.

• The keeper holds the money. If its key were stolen or lost, the vault could be lost with it. The launch limit keeps the amount at risk small.
• Not audited. The keeper's code is tested, including runs against a copy of Solana mainnet, but nobody outside has reviewed it.
• You can lose your whole stake. Memecoin prices move fast, and a wrong side gets nothing back.
• pump.fun controls the pool. It sets PumpSwap's fees and can change pool parameters, which changes what a market costs to push.
• Outages delay payouts. If the keeper stops reading during a window, the market voids and refunds; if it stops paying, payouts wait until it is back.
• No early exit. A stake stays until its market settles.
• Markets can start empty. A market with money on only one side when betting closes refunds everyone in full, with no fee.